Analyzing Offense: Unpacking Non-Playoff Teams' Batting Struggles
As the baseball regular season concludes and the playoff picture solidifies, attention naturally shifts to teams that fell short of postseason contention. This analysis scrutinizes the offensive strategies and outcomes of several non-playoff teams, including the Los Angeles Angels, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, and Seattle Mariners. Utilizing advanced metrics, particularly Decision Value (DV), we explore the intricacies of their plate approaches, aiming to pinpoint the factors that undermined their success. Decision Value, a unique metric, assesses a hitter's swing decisions by evaluating whether they chose to swing at pitches they could hit hard or opted to take pitches less likely to produce quality contact. This deep dive moves beyond simple plate discipline to reveal the nuanced mechanics behind each team's offensive challenges.
The Los Angeles Angels' offensive narrative continues to be dominated by Mike Trout, whose impressive 119 DV this season stands out. His consistent ability to lay off bad pitches and attack good ones, coupled with a solid zone swing rate, highlights his elite plate discipline. However, beyond Trout, the Angels' lineup faces significant hurdles. While Nolan Schanuel demonstrates an admirable approach to pitches outside the strike zone, his lack of impactful contact limits his overall offensive contribution. Similarly, Josh Lowe's struggles exemplify the team's broader issues; despite improvements in his in-zone swing rate, his inability to maintain consistent contact and power throughout the season hindered his performance. The Angels' aggressive swing rate combined with the league's lowest contact rate forms a detrimental combination that explains much of their offensive woes.
The Cincinnati Reds present a peculiar case. Despite a hitter-friendly home ballpark, their run production ranks among the lowest in the league. JJ Bleday emerges as a standout, showcasing exceptional plate discipline with a 128 DV, marked by smart chase decisions and aggressive zone swings. While his batting average might appear low, his high fly-ball rate contributes to a lower BABIP, indicative of bad luck rather than poor hitting. Elly De La Cruz has shown progressive improvement in his plate approach, notably reducing his chase rate. However, a slight decrease in zone aggression affects his overall DV. Many Reds players, such as Matt McLain, exhibit better plate approaches than their season statistics suggest, battling unlucky BABIPs and high strikeout rates despite solid discipline. Ke'Bryan Hayes embodies the Reds' offensive frustrations, suffering from a significant drop in contact rate and a streak of poor batted-ball luck, despite an encouraging increase in his launch angle.
The Baltimore Orioles, a team characterized by a passive offensive style, have seen players like Taylor Ward, with his 131 DV, lead their charge. Ward's exceptional ability to avoid chasing pitches contrasts with a dip in his barrel rate and a more selective approach to hitting different pitch types. Pete Alonso, in his inaugural season with Baltimore, has also demonstrated an improved plate approach, balancing a career-low chase rate with an increased zone swing rate. Conversely, young hitters like Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand display more aggressive tendencies. Basallo and Encarnacion-Strand, in particular, exhibit high chase rates that significantly drag down their DVs, despite their aggressive swings within the strike zone. Jackson Holliday, a highly-touted prospect, struggled to meet offensive expectations, displaying below-average power and contact skills, raising concerns about the development pipeline for Orioles' hitting prospects.
The St. Louis Cardinals, despite some individual bright spots, faced offensive inconsistencies. JJ Wetherholt, in his rookie season, showcased an excellent plate approach with a 117 DV, maintaining a high percentile chase rate. Other players like José Fermín and Masyn Winn also exhibited strong chase rates but struggled to translate this into overall offensive productivity. Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson contribute in varying degrees, with Walker and Burleson displaying similar statistical lines but achieving them through different plate approaches—Burleson being aggressive in the zone but prone to chasing, while Walker shows better discipline on waste pitches. Nathan Church, despite an early power surge, ultimately revealed a contact-first profile lacking either elite discipline or exceptional contact skills, contributing to an offense that, while above average in runs scored, had significant room for improvement in overall efficiency.
For the Seattle Mariners, the season presented challenges despite strong performances from Randy Arozarena and Dominic Canzone. The acquisition of Taylor Ward, a Decision Value All-Star, did not immediately translate into success, as the team struggled with overall plate aggression. Cole Young demonstrated a balanced approach, aligning his DV with his wRC+. However, many core Mariners players, including Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, and Cal Raleigh, showed declines in their plate discipline. Rodríguez's career-high chase rate and career-low zone swing rate resulted in a diminished DV. Naylor mirrored this trend, while Canzone saw a drop in zone swing rate without a significant reduction in his chase rate. Cal Raleigh's struggles were particularly notable, with a significant decline in both offensive production and defensive metrics compared to his previous historic season. The team's overall offensive issues are compounded by T-Mobile Park's unfavorable conditions for offense, characterized by high strikeout and low walk park factors. Improving the performance of key players like Raleigh would be crucial for the Mariners' future success.