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Unraveling the Mystery: Can Anyone Outshine Counting Stars in the Alabama Stakes?

The Star Contender: Counting Stars

Set in the picturesque Saratoga Springs, New York, the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes, boasting a $600,000 purse, will witness six exceptional 3-year-old fillies vie for supremacy over a demanding 1 1/4-mile distance. Among them, Counting Stars is widely expected to be the overwhelming favorite, riding high on the momentum of two consecutive Grade 1 triumphs at Saratoga. Her unparalleled success positions her as the sole stakes winner in this competitive lineup.

Detailed Breakdown of the Challengers: Nycon

Nycon, with morning-line odds of 20-1, is a filly sired by Nyquist and trained by Whit Beckman, with Dylan Davis as her jockey. Her career record stands at 6 starts, 1 win, 2 second-place finishes, and 0 third-place finishes, accumulating $163,518 in earnings. Nycon's maiden victory came in her second start as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs in November. She later secured second place in two stakes races at Gulfstream Park in January and Aqueduct in February. However, her performance in graded stakes has been less impressive, finishing a distant fourth in the Gazelle (G3) and even further back in the CCA Oaks (G1), making her a less likely contender in this high-stakes race.

Detailed Breakdown of the Challengers: Ati Girl

Ati Girl, listed at 10-1 odds, is another progeny of Nyquist, trained by Bill Mott and ridden by John Velazquez. Her record comprises 9 starts, 1 win, 3 second-place finishes, and 1 third-place finish, with total earnings of $131,979. Ati Girl achieved her maiden win in her ninth career start at Saratoga in July, over nine furlongs. Her recent form includes four races since joining Bill Mott's stable in March. Notably, she is the only filly in the field to have competed at the 10-furlong distance, where she secured a second-place finish in Kentucky. Trainer Bill Mott's impressive history includes three Alabama Stakes victories, one of which was with the distinguished Royal Delta, suggesting potential for Ati Girl to go the distance.

Detailed Breakdown of the Challengers: Measure

Measure, with odds of 8-1, is sired by Essential Quality, trained by Mark Casse, and has Flavien Prat as her jockey. She has a record of 6 starts, 1 win, 2 second-place finishes, and 1 third-place finish, earning $179,616. Measure secured her maiden victory in her third career race at Churchill in November and followed it up with a second-place finish in an allowance race at Saratoga in June. Her only graded stakes attempt resulted in a third-place finish in the CCA Oaks at 26-1 odds. Mark Casse's previous success in this race, winning last year with Nitrogen, adds an interesting dimension, although Measure's current form suggests others might be stronger contenders.

Detailed Breakdown of the Challengers: My Gun's Loaded

My Gun's Loaded, a Gun Runner progeny, is offered at 9-2 odds, trained by Chad Brown, and ridden by Manny Franco. Her record is 3 starts, 2 wins, 0 second-place finishes, and 0 third-place finishes, with earnings of $130,500. She began her career in December under Steve Asmussen before moving to Chad Brown's barn. Despite a lack of recorded workouts prior to her maiden win in June at Saratoga, she impressively topped a field of seven. Subsequently, she secured another victory in a one-mile allowance race by three lengths, demonstrating strong speed figures. Chad Brown's past successes in the Alabama Stakes with Randomized in 2023 and Dunbar Road in 2019 make My Gun's Loaded a strong candidate for an exacta finish or even a significant upset.

Detailed Breakdown of the Challengers: A.P.'s Girl

A.P.'s Girl, an Honor A.P. progeny, is set at 10-1 odds, trained by Peter Eurton, and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Her career statistics show 10 starts, 2 wins, 1 second-place finish, and 1 third-place finish, with total earnings of $158,289. A.P.'s Girl secured her first win in her sixth start in January at Fair Grounds, followed by an allowance victory. In stakes races at Laurel Park, she finished a close second in the Weber City Miss and third in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). Her last appearance saw her placing third in the Monomoy Girl at Churchill in June. Having trained at Ellis Park since, she represents another strong "underneath" possibility for exotic bets.

Detailed Breakdown of the Challengers: Counting Stars

Counting Stars, also an Honor A.P. progeny, is the heavy favorite at 2-5 odds, trained by Mark Casse, and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. Her impressive record includes 10 starts, 6 wins, 1 second-place finish, and 1 third-place finish, with staggering earnings of $1,660,606. She has dominated her last two Saratoga races, winning the Acorn (G1) in June and the CCA Oaks (G1) last month by a combined margin of eight lengths. While she placed third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) against the top 3-year-old fillies, her juvenile career included a four-length win at Churchill and two stakes victories at Oaklawn. Her first graded-stakes win came in the Fantasy (G2) in March, following a third-place finish in the Honeybee (G3). Given her consistent top performances, Counting Stars is undoubtedly the top pick.

Concluding Thoughts and Predictions for the Alabama Stakes

Counting Stars stands head and shoulders above the competition in this field. Her accumulated earnings of $1.6 million dwarf the combined total of all other five fillies, none of whom have achieved stakes victories. With only four graded stakes appearances among the rest of the field, Counting Stars' dominance is undeniable. While Measure secured a third-place in the CCA Oaks and A.P.'s Girl achieved the same in the Black-Eyed Susan, their overall records do not match the favorite's consistent high-level performances. Counting Stars is a deserving odds-on favorite and the clear top selection. My Gun's Loaded, with her two impressive recent wins under Chad Brown, is the most likely candidate to complete the exacta. Should either Measure or A.P.'s Girl manage to secure second place, it would result in a more lucrative exacta payout.