North American Thoroughbred Breeding Industry Faces Continued Decline and Regional Shifts
Navigating the Evolving Terrain of Thoroughbred Breeding: Challenges and Opportunities
Projected Decline in the 2027 Foal Crop
The Jockey Club forecasts a reduction in the North American registered Thoroughbred foal crop for 2027, estimating a figure of 16,500. This marks a notable decrease from the 2026 projection of 17,000. These figures are derived from reports of mares bred (RMBs) during the 2026 breeding season.
Breeding Activity Overview for 2026
As of October 1, 2026, The Jockey Club received RMBs indicating that 670 stallions covered 23,932 mares across North America during the breeding season. It is anticipated that an additional 2,000 to 3,000 mares will be reported as bred. Notably, 180 mares participated in a mare incentive program launched in December 2024, designed to encourage breeding for mares that had ceased production.
Five-Year Trends in North American Breeding
A review of the past five years' data, collected up to October 1 of each breeding year, demonstrates a consistent decline in both the number of stallions and mares bred. In 2022, 880 stallions bred 26,744 mares, which steadily decreased to 670 stallions covering 23,932 mares by 2026. This indicates a contraction in the overall breeding market.
Kentucky's Dominance in Thoroughbred Breeding
Kentucky continues to be the leading hub for Thoroughbred breeding in North America. In 2026, 187 stallions in Kentucky covered 16,677 mares, accounting for nearly 70% of all mares bred across the continent. This underscores Kentucky's crucial role in the industry.
Mares Bred per Stallion: A Detailed Look
The distribution of mares bred per stallion in 2026 shows a concentration, with 519 stallions covering 1-49 mares, and only 4 stallions covering 250 or more. High-volume stallions include Sierra Leone (293 mares), Tiz the Law (288), and Gun Runner (250), among others.
Interpreting the Breeding Statistics
The Jockey Club's analysis highlights that the industry's contraction is not merely in the foal crop but also in the stallion population, which has declined at a faster rate than mares bred. This has resulted in an increased average book size for stallions, from 33.4 mares in 2025 to 35.7 mares in 2026, signaling a growing concentration within the breeding market.
Kentucky's Expanding Market Influence
Kentucky experienced a 1.9% increase in mares bred in 2026, even with a slight reduction in stallion numbers. Its share of North American mares bred expanded from 66.4% to 69.7%, and the average book size per Kentucky stallion grew to 89.2. This illustrates Kentucky's strengthening position, representing a disproportionate share of mares bred relative to its stallion population.
Declining Activity Outside Kentucky
Conversely, breeding activity outside Kentucky saw a significant downturn, with a 12.5% decrease in mares bred and a 12% reduction in stallions. This indicates that the contraction in the breeding industry is primarily affecting regions outside Kentucky, posing challenges for many local breeding initiatives.
Regional Variances: Declines in Major Breeding Jurisdictions
Several established regional breeding areas faced substantial declines. California reported a 13.9% drop in mares bred, Florida a 14.6% decrease, and Ontario a 23.2% decline. Other regions like Louisiana, Puerto Rico, and West Virginia also saw significant reductions, indicating sustained pressure on these traditional breeding programs.
Regional Success Stories: Growth in Select Jurisdictions
Despite the overall trend, some regions exhibited growth. New York's mares bred increased by 14.2%, and its stallion count also rose. Smaller jurisdictions such as Oklahoma, Virginia, Manitoba, Wyoming, Arizona, and Iowa also reported notable increases in mares bred. These successes demonstrate that local opportunities and incentives can foster growth, even within a contracting industry.
The Significance of Industry Trends
The findings emphasize that the challenges facing the Thoroughbred industry extend beyond just declining foal crops; they involve a consolidation of breeding activities in specific regions and among fewer stallions. A robust Thoroughbred industry necessitates vigorous regional breeding programs to support local economies, employment, owners, breeders, and racetracks. Identifying and replicating successful state-level initiatives are crucial for strengthening the industry's long-term sustainability.
New Leadership for State-Level Growth Initiatives
In response to these trends, The Jockey Club has established the position of Director of State Breeder and Provincial Programs. Najja Thompson, who will assume this role on October 28, is tasked with collaborating with state breeding organizations, racing associations, and partners to identify effective programs and facilitate their adaptation and expansion in other states, aiming to drive localized growth.